Note ban shock over? Economic growth to end 5-quarter slide in Q2: Poll

The Reuters poll of 52 economists over past week showed GDP growth likely rose to 6.4%

LATEST NEWS : Indian economic growth likely rebounded in the July-September quarter from the slowest growth in three years, with demand picking up modestly as the effects from a shock Note ban on high-value currency notes eased, a Reuters poll showed.

If that's correct, the data will be the latest evidence of a broad-based global economic upturn across Asia and most of the world that has many major central banks poised to move away from ultra-easy monetary policy.

India was the world's fastest-growing major economy in 2016. But already-slowing growth was made weaker by the surprise cash clampdown late in 2016 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government, which has hurt consumer spending ever since.

In July, the government introduced a goods and services tax that made sweeping changes to the way businesses across Asia's third largest economy charge taxes, delivering another blow to the economy.

But the Reuters poll of 52 economists over the past week showed gross domestic product growth likely rose to 6.4 percent from a year ago in the July-September quarter, from 5.7 percent in the previous period.

If the data, due to be released on 1200 GMT on Nov. 30, matches expectations, it will break a five-quarter slowing trend and mark the best rate this calendar year. Forecasts in the poll ranged from 5.9 percent to 6.8 percent.

"India's GDP growth is expected to rebound, albeit at a slower pace, due to supply disruptions stemming from the goods and services tax," wrote Shashank Mendiratta, economist at ANZ, who is forecasting a 6.2 percent pace.

"However, growth was probably cushioned by festive demand, and an uptick in industrial production," he said, referring to the national holiday of Diwali in mid-October, before which there is usually a surge in spending.

Since mid-year, sales of two-wheel and commercial vehicles, oil consumption, cargo traffic and rail freight have all increased and raised hopes that the impact of the cash squeeze has bottomed out.

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